Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 73° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Sacred Heart–Massachusetts) | 18–41 | – | 10–37 |
| Spread | Massachusetts −22.7 | Massachusetts −23.5 | Massachusetts −27 |
| Total | 59.3 | 53.5 | 47 |
| Massachusetts win chance | 92% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Sacred Heart +23.5 Lost★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Sacred Heart (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.8 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Massachusetts by 22.71%
Sacred Heart by 14+
7%
Sacred Heart by 1–13
21%
Massachusetts by 1–13
70%
Massachusetts by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Sacred Heart | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.159 | Offense EPA / play | −0.062 #99 |
| +0.333 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.102 #105 |
| −11.7% | Offense success rate | −1.7% #89 |
| +13.5% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.7% #123 |
| −0.000 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.003 #88 |
| −0.233 | Passing EPA / play | −0.030 #70 |
| +0.211 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.056 #28 |
| +0.344 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.174 #118 |
| −16.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.2 #109 |
| +15.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.9 #124 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.2% #80 |
| +14.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.2% #76 |
| −2.41 | Points per drive | −0.89 #115 |
| +2.12 | Points per drive allowed | +0.96 #126 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.35 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #88 |
| +0.75 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.10 #94 |
| +5.1% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.1% #100 |
| −3.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.8% #119 |
| +0.9% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #74 |
| −6.8% | Havoc created | +0.5% #44 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.386 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.021 #90 |
| +0.355 | Passing explosiveness | +0.058 #91 |
| +0.06 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.45 #124 |
| −0.050 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.200 #131 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 66% | Run rate | 57% #47 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.2 #76 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Sacred Heart | Season to date | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 10.0 / 37.0 | Points for / against | 31.8 / 17.8 |
| -27.0 | Avg margin | +14.0 |
| -3.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.8 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.0 |
Sacred Heart: last games
No games yet.
Massachusetts: last 1 games
| W37-21 |
