Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 78° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Tarleton State–Bowling Green) | 19–31 | – | 20–13 |
| Spread | Bowling Green −12.0 | Bowling Green −1.5 | Tarleton State −7 |
| Total | 50.4 | 49.5 | 33 |
| Bowling Green win chance | 78% | – | – |
Line moved from Bowling Green −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Bowling Green −1.5 Lost★ Over 49.5 Lost
Spread: 10.5 pts better than Vegas for Bowling Green (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Bowling Green by 12.05%
Tarleton State by 14+
17%
Tarleton State by 1–13
32%
Bowling Green by 1–13
45%
Bowling Green by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tarleton State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.129 | Offense EPA / play | −0.152 #132 |
| +0.223 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.114 #104 |
| −7.5% | Offense success rate | −7.1% #133 |
| +10.2% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.6% #103 |
| −0.152 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.110 #126 |
| −0.144 | Passing EPA / play | −0.130 #127 |
| +0.200 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.076 #96 |
| +0.269 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.149 #122 |
| −6.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.9 #130 |
| +11.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.7 #94 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.9% #130 |
| +8.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +4.6% #121 |
| −1.20 | Points per drive | −0.96 #126 |
| +2.15 | Points per drive allowed | +1.19 #104 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.66 | Line yards per rush | −0.33 #113 |
| +0.52 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #102 |
| +6.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.9% #112 |
| −3.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.4% #59 |
| −0.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.4% #127 |
| −5.8% | Havoc created | +0.7% #37 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.042 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.024 #111 |
| +0.096 | Passing explosiveness | +0.034 #35 |
| −0.42 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.26 #111 |
| −0.020 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.023 #129 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% | Run rate | 57% #17 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tarleton State | Season to date | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 0-2 |
| 1-0 | Away | 1-2 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 20.0 / 13.0 | Points for / against | 11.4 / 33.0 |
| +7.0 | Avg margin | -21.6 |
| +8.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.7 |
| 61.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.6 |
Tarleton State: last games
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Bowling Green: last games
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