Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Fargodome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wyoming–NDSU) | 16–29 | – | 0–28 |
| Spread | NDSU −13.3 | NDSU −17.5 | NDSU −28 |
| Total | 44.6 | 44.5 | 28 |
| North Dakota State win chance | 80% | – | – |
Line moved from NDSU −21 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wyoming +17.5 Lost★ Over 44.5 Lost
Spread: 4.2 pts better than Vegas for Wyoming (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NDSU by 13.34%
Wyoming by 14+
16%
Wyoming by 1–13
32%
North Dakota State by 1–13
48%
North Dakota State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wyoming | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.131 #115 | Offense EPA / play | −0.084 #97 |
| +0.140 #105 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.046 #27 |
| −4.9% #104 | Offense success rate | −7.4% #128 |
| +8.7% #133 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.8% #84 |
| −0.112 #109 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.121 #112 |
| −0.153 #112 | Passing EPA / play | −0.011 #66 |
| +0.131 #108 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.144 #10 |
| +0.137 #96 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.082 #83 |
| −15.4 #137 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.9 #87 |
| +4.2 #87 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.2 #68 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.0% #85 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.0% #108 |
| +3.7% #91 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.3% #42 |
| −1.84 #136 | Points per drive | −0.06 #68 |
| +1.02 #100 | Points per drive allowed | +0.73 #82 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.12 #73 | Line yards per rush | −0.46 #118 |
| +0.51 #124 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.21 #87 |
| +2.0% #86 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.5% #94 |
| −5.3% #124 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.5% #76 |
| +1.9% #104 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.4% #54 |
| −4.9% #136 | Havoc created | −0.2% #60 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.105 #113 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.109 #27 |
| −0.118 #114 | Passing explosiveness | +0.271 #8 |
| −0.50 #121 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.51 #122 |
| −0.085 #46 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.008 #80 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #68 | Run rate | 56% #31 |
| −20.7 #129 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −24.1 #137 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wyoming | Season to date | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 14.2 / 22.0 | Points for / against | 33.6 / 9.8 |
| -7.8 | Avg margin | +23.8 |
| -8.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 56.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.8 |
Wyoming: last 4 games
| W27-10 | |
| L10-24 | |
| W21-13 | |
| L13-35 |
North Dakota State: last 4 games
| W31-10 | |
| W38-32 | |
| W38-0 | |
| W33-7 |
