Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
InfoCision Stadium · 67° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNLV–Akron) | 23–24 | – | 38–10 |
| Spread | Akron −0.9 | UNLV −13.5 | UNLV −28 |
| Total | 46.2 | 52.5 | 48 |
| Akron win chance | 52% | – | – |
Line moved from UNLV −14 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Akron +13.5 Lost★ Under 52.5 Won
Spread: 14.4 pts better than Vegas for Akron (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 6.3 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Akron by 0.917%
UNLV by 14+
31%
UNLV by 1–13
32%
Akron by 1–13
20%
Akron by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UNLV | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.156 #119 | Offense EPA / play | −0.157 #120 |
| +0.100 #94 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.140 #109 |
| −6.2% #118 | Offense success rate | −3.6% #97 |
| +3.2% #80 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.4% #96 |
| −0.118 #113 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.173 #124 |
| −0.244 #126 | Passing EPA / play | −0.158 #112 |
| +0.141 #109 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.007 #45 |
| +0.069 #78 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.233 #128 |
| −9.2 #125 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.8 #111 |
| +2.5 #78 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +9.9 #125 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.8% #130 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.4% #81 |
| +1.0% #65 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.0% #96 |
| −1.10 #117 | Points per drive | −0.90 #107 |
| +0.68 #80 | Points per drive allowed | +1.25 #111 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.20 #80 | Line yards per rush | −0.20 #81 |
| +0.63 #137 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #59 |
| +1.4% #80 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.4% #96 |
| −3.9% #109 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.9% #48 |
| +2.8% #118 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.0% #130 |
| −0.4% #66 | Havoc created | +0.3% #54 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.090 #107 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.177 #132 |
| −0.160 #121 | Passing explosiveness | −0.143 #120 |
| +0.14 #32 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.33 #102 |
| +0.128 #124 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.191 #132 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #52 | Run rate | 45% #121 |
| −7.8 #44 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.4 #78 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UNLV | Season to date | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 25.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 19.0 / 33.6 |
| +1.4 | Avg margin | -14.6 |
| -3.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.9 |
| 64.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.8 |
UNLV: last 3 games
| L6-44 | |
| W21-6 | |
| L21-27 |
Akron: last 3 games
| L7-41 | |
| W45-10 | |
| L16-38 |
