Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium · 70° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Hawai'i–Wyoming) | 25–24 | – | 10–27 |
| Spread | Hawai'i −1.1 | Hawai'i −2.5 | Wyoming −17 |
| Total | 48.4 | 44.5 | 37 |
| Wyoming win chance | 47% | – | – |
Line moved from Hawai'i −5.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wyoming +2.5 Won★ Over 44.5 Lost
Spread: 1.4 pts better than Vegas for Wyoming (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Hawai'i by 1.121%
Hawai'i by 14+
32%
Hawai'i by 1–13
30%
Wyoming by 1–13
17%
Wyoming by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Hawai'i | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.160 #121 | Offense EPA / play | −0.197 #133 |
| +0.140 #108 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.144 #110 |
| −7.3% #128 | Offense success rate | −7.4% #129 |
| +6.9% #121 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.4% #132 |
| −0.190 #127 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.136 #117 |
| −0.168 #116 | Passing EPA / play | −0.246 #129 |
| +0.211 #135 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.094 #98 |
| −0.018 #47 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.173 #112 |
| −8.5 #121 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −16.2 #138 |
| +7.1 #107 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.4 #103 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.0% #95 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.3% #99 |
| +2.4% #80 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.5% #110 |
| −1.38 #131 | Points per drive | −2.10 #138 |
| +0.84 #87 | Points per drive allowed | +1.13 #108 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.28 #102 | Line yards per rush | −0.22 #89 |
| +0.53 #128 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.46 #122 |
| +2.7% #100 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.7% #111 |
| −6.3% #132 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.6% #120 |
| +2.2% #109 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.8% #120 |
| −2.6% #110 | Havoc created | −5.8% #138 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.040 #83 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.069 #97 |
| −0.108 #108 | Passing explosiveness | −0.103 #105 |
| +0.03 #47 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.68 #133 |
| −0.043 #59 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.006 #83 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 38% #138 | Run rate | 52% #72 |
| −12.9 #82 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −22.6 #131 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Hawai'i | Season to date | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 17.6 / 24.8 | Points for / against | 14.2 / 22.0 |
| -7.2 | Avg margin | -7.8 |
| -8.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.3 |
| 72.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.0 |
Hawai'i: last 3 games
| W29-19 | |
| L6-21 | |
| L27-37 |
Wyoming: last 3 games
| L10-24 | |
| W21-13 | |
| L13-35 |
