Final
Sat, Sep 12, 9:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium · 69° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Cal Poly–San José State) | 15–44 | – | 20–30 |
| Spread | San José State −29.3 | San José State −21.5 | San José State −10 |
| Total | 59.7 | 58.5 | 50 |
| San José State win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from San José State −20.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ San José State −21.5 Lost★ Over 58.5 Lost
Spread: 7.8 pts better than Vegas for San José State (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around San José State by 29.30%
Cal Poly by 14+
3%
Cal Poly by 1–13
14%
San José State by 1–13
83%
San José State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Cal Poly | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.209 | Offense EPA / play | −0.018 #66 |
| +0.290 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.027 #72 |
| −9.4% | Offense success rate | −2.7% #102 |
| +13.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.2% #86 |
| −0.158 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.056 #114 |
| −0.156 | Passing EPA / play | +0.041 #39 |
| +0.231 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.117 #120 |
| +0.329 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.039 #33 |
| −13.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.5 #55 |
| +16.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.9 #98 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.8% #97 |
| +13.8% | Passing-down success allowed | −4.3% #17 |
| −1.99 | Points per drive | −0.37 #77 |
| +2.00 | Points per drive allowed | +0.23 #75 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.46 | Line yards per rush | +0.19 #52 |
| +1.14 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #81 |
| +5.4% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.9% #83 |
| −12.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.2% #132 |
| −0.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #88 |
| −8.0% | Havoc created | −1.7% #101 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.008 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.005 #71 |
| +0.340 | Passing explosiveness | +0.289 #12 |
| −0.74 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.54 #131 |
| −0.034 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.234 #2 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 53% #93 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.1 #43 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Cal Poly | Season to date | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 20.0 / 30.0 | Points for / against | 22.6 / 25.0 |
| -10.0 | Avg margin | -2.4 |
| +11.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.4 |
| 69.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
Cal Poly: last games
No games yet.
San José State: last 2 games
| W27-21 | |
| L26-42 |
