Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Huskie Stadium · 74° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Illinois State–NIU) | 25–29 | – | 28–24 |
| Spread | NIU −4.0 | Illinois State −2.5 | Illinois State −4 |
| Total | 53.1 | 47.5 | 52 |
| Northern Illinois win chance | 60% | – | – |
Line moved from Illinois State −4.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NIU +2.5 Lost★ Over 47.5 Won
Spread: 6.5 pts better than Vegas for Northern Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.6 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NIU by 4.013%
Illinois State by 14+
27%
Illinois State by 1–13
33%
Northern Illinois by 1–13
27%
Northern Illinois by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Illinois State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.164 | Offense EPA / play | −0.162 #131 |
| +0.187 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.142 #118 |
| −9.7% | Offense success rate | −9.8% #138 |
| +8.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +5.5% #113 |
| −0.085 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.118 #113 |
| −0.104 | Passing EPA / play | −0.209 #131 |
| +0.167 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.151 #123 |
| +0.149 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.107 #91 |
| −2.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.7 #130 |
| +6.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.1 #104 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.7% #131 |
| +10.0% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.9% #117 |
| −1.19 | Points per drive | −0.90 #110 |
| +1.60 | Points per drive allowed | +1.24 #114 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.70 | Line yards per rush | −0.53 #128 |
| +0.54 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.38 #117 |
| +5.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | +6.2% #132 |
| −4.2% | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.5% #114 |
| +3.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.1% #115 |
| −3.4% | Havoc created | −1.3% #88 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.125 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.122 #120 |
| +0.240 | Passing explosiveness | −0.040 #90 |
| −0.47 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.26 #94 |
| −0.064 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.142 #23 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 56% #23 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +13.6 #12 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Illinois State | Season to date | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-3 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 28.0 / 24.0 | Points for / against | 13.8 / 36.2 |
| +4.0 | Avg margin | -22.5 |
| +1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.2 |
| 59.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.2 |
Illinois State: last games
No games yet.
Northern Illinois: last 1 games
| L0-40 |
