Final
Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 PM ET
Falcon Stadium · 59° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NDSU–Air Force) | 22–25 | – | 38–32 |
| Spread | Air Force −2.7 | NDSU −1.5 | NDSU −6 |
| Total | 46.5 | 48.5 | 70 |
| Air Force win chance | 57% | – | – |
Line moved from NDSU −6.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Air Force +1.5 Lost★ Under 48.5 Lost
Spread: 4.2 pts better than Vegas for Air Force (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Air Force by 2.714%
North Dakota State by 14+
29%
North Dakota State by 1–13
33%
Air Force by 1–13
24%
Air Force by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NDSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.064 #95 | Offense EPA / play | −0.065 #97 |
| −0.043 #23 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.181 #129 |
| −4.7% #115 | Offense success rate | −2.7% #86 |
| +3.1% #78 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.1% #134 |
| −0.074 #96 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.025 #73 |
| −0.037 #79 | Passing EPA / play | −0.253 #135 |
| +0.003 #49 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.203 #132 |
| −0.101 #16 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.142 #105 |
| −6.3 #106 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.4 #125 |
| +2.2 #72 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.0 #103 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.1% #134 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.4% #129 |
| +0.4% #55 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.8% #131 |
| +0.02 #51 | Points per drive | −0.81 #105 |
| +0.85 #89 | Points per drive allowed | +1.45 #123 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.32 #108 | Line yards per rush | −0.20 #85 |
| +0.14 #75 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.60 #136 |
| +0.9% #67 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.0% #58 |
| −2.3% #97 | Opponent runs stuffed | −6.6% #137 |
| +0.4% #81 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.3% #5 |
| −2.1% #104 | Havoc created | −4.9% #135 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.035 #88 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.018 #76 |
| −0.023 #79 | Passing explosiveness | −0.127 #124 |
| −0.66 #136 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.63 #135 |
| −0.140 #24 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.126 #26 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #73 | Run rate | 79% #2 |
| −28.9 #104 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −36.9 #122 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NDSU | Season to date | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 33.6 / 9.8 | Points for / against | 29.0 / 20.0 |
| +23.8 | Avg margin | +9.0 |
| +5.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.2 |
| 56.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 71.0 |
North Dakota State: last 2 games
| W38-0 | |
| W33-7 |
Air Force: last 1 games
| W34-0 |
