Final
Sat, Sep 5, 1:00 PM ET
Falcon Stadium · 85° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Duquesne–Air Force) | 18–40 | – | 0–34 |
| Spread | Air Force −21.8 | Air Force −31.5 | Air Force −34 |
| Total | 58.5 | 55.5 | 34 |
| Air Force win chance | 91% | – | – |
Line moved from Air Force −30.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Duquesne +31.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 9.7 pts better than Vegas for Duquesne (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Air Force by 21.81%
Duquesne by 14+
8%
Duquesne by 1–13
23%
Air Force by 1–13
69%
Air Force by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Duquesne | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.201 | Offense EPA / play | −0.061 #90 |
| +0.319 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.258 #138 |
| −10.8% | Offense success rate | −2.4% #88 |
| +12.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +10.5% #138 |
| −0.206 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.075 #100 |
| −0.232 | Passing EPA / play | −0.022 #72 |
| +0.282 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.217 #138 |
| +0.333 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.250 #137 |
| −15.5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.2 #113 |
| +19.2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.2 #131 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.4% #112 |
| +12.3% | Passing-down success allowed | +9.0% #138 |
| −1.64 | Points per drive | −0.67 #107 |
| +3.16 | Points per drive allowed | +1.98 #137 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.79 | Line yards per rush | −0.39 #128 |
| +0.70 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.53 #137 |
| +7.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.6% #83 |
| −5.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.3% #137 |
| +1.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #15 |
| −8.1% | Havoc created | −4.9% #137 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.050 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.038 #134 |
| +0.042 | Passing explosiveness | +0.209 #2 |
| −0.49 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.44 #137 |
| −0.016 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.082 #7 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 76% #2 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Duquesne | Season to date | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 3.5 / 41.0 | Points for / against | 29.0 / 20.0 |
| -37.5 | Avg margin | +9.0 |
| -2.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.2 |
| 37.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 71.0 |
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