Final
Sat, Aug 29, 3:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 92° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (San José State–USC) | 12–46 | – | 26–42 |
| Spread | USC −34.2 | USC −37.5 | USC −16 |
| Total | 58.4 | 61.5 | 68 |
| USC win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from USC −35.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ San José State +37.5 Won★ Under 61.5 Lost
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for San José State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 3.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around USC by 34.20%
San José State by 14+
2%
San José State by 1–13
9%
USC by 1–13
89%
USC by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| San José State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.069 #96 | Offense EPA / play | +0.169 #6 |
| +0.135 #117 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.063 #16 |
| −1.6% #72 | Offense success rate | +6.4% #9 |
| +4.8% #106 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.3% #26 |
| −0.074 #99 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.082 #17 |
| −0.078 #98 | Passing EPA / play | +0.209 #2 |
| +0.095 #106 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.038 #21 |
| +0.123 #110 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.112 #11 |
| −5.6 #103 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +10.0 #8 |
| +9.6 #127 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.3 #17 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.9% #78 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.8% #6 |
| +3.0% #89 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.0% #18 |
| −0.72 #115 | Points per drive | +1.56 #5 |
| +1.41 #123 | Points per drive allowed | −0.40 #18 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.21 #86 | Line yards per rush | +0.16 #19 |
| +0.27 #111 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.02 #50 |
| +2.8% #110 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.1% #27 |
| −4.1% #136 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.4% #39 |
| +0.2% #77 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.2% #27 |
| −3.3% #128 | Havoc created | +1.7% #19 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.032 #124 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.020 #7 |
| −0.025 #111 | Passing explosiveness | +0.041 #27 |
| −0.21 #101 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.22 #9 |
| +0.032 #130 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.043 #44 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #129 | Run rate | 50% #96 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| San José State | Season to date | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-5 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-2 |
| 22.6 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 37.3 / 25.5 |
| -2.4 | Avg margin | +11.8 |
| +2.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.2 |
| 65.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |
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