Final
Sat, Oct 3, 6:00 PM ET
FAU Stadium · 82° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas Southern–FAU) | 13–52 | – | 10–66 |
| Spread | FAU −38.8 | FAU −47.5 | FAU −56 |
| Total | 65.2 | 62.5 | 76 |
| Florida Atlantic win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from FAU −43.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Texas Southern +47.5 Lost★ Over 62.5 Won
Spread: 8.7 pts better than Vegas for Texas Southern (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around FAU by 38.80%
Texas Southern by 14+
1%
Texas Southern by 1–13
6%
Florida Atlantic by 1–13
93%
Florida Atlantic by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas Southern | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.228 | Offense EPA / play | −0.032 #80 |
| +0.392 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.148 #120 |
| −13.9% | Offense success rate | −0.5% #76 |
| +16.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.0% #72 |
| −0.125 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.014 #80 |
| −0.221 | Passing EPA / play | −0.078 #86 |
| +0.379 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.117 #112 |
| +0.411 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.176 #115 |
| −20.4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.1 #76 |
| +28.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.1 #124 |
| Situational | ||
| −14.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.1% #37 |
| +14.4% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.4% #74 |
| −2.93 | Points per drive | −0.39 #88 |
| +3.66 | Points per drive allowed | +0.89 #116 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.73 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #97 |
| +1.14 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.13 #47 |
| +5.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.8% #54 |
| −9.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.7% #34 |
| +3.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.0% #77 |
| −5.9% | Havoc created | −0.6% #73 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.053 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.071 #45 |
| +0.263 | Passing explosiveness | −0.022 #115 |
| −0.38 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.66 #133 |
| +0.050 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.293 #137 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% | Run rate | 50% #120 |
| −22.4 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.8 #66 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas Southern | Season to date | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 10.0 / 58.5 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 26.6 |
| -48.5 | Avg margin | +10.6 |
| -11.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 49.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
Texas Southern: last 1 games
| L10-51 |
Florida Atlantic: last 4 games
| W45-17 | |
| W16-10 | |
| W38-30 | |
| L21-66 |
