Final
Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM ET
Chapman Stadium · 92° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (East Texas A&M–Tulsa) | 9–46 | – | 0–42 |
| Spread | Tulsa −36.3 | Tulsa −41.5 | Tulsa −42 |
| Total | 54.8 | 55.5 | 42 |
| Tulsa win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Tulsa −42.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ East Texas A&M +41.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Won
Spread: 5.2 pts better than Vegas for East Texas A&M (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tulsa by 36.30%
East Texas A&M by 14+
1%
East Texas A&M by 1–13
7%
Tulsa by 1–13
92%
Tulsa by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| East Texas A&M | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.340 | Offense EPA / play | −0.083 #97 |
| +0.272 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.015 #52 |
| −12.0% | Offense success rate | −4.6% #110 |
| +13.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.1% #67 |
| −0.305 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.044 #38 |
| −0.404 | Passing EPA / play | −0.196 #124 |
| +0.290 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.059 #28 |
| +0.173 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.098 #90 |
| −19.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.6 #107 |
| +18.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.7 #58 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −10.4% #134 |
| +11.3% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.3% #111 |
| −3.12 | Points per drive | −1.00 #113 |
| +2.72 | Points per drive allowed | +0.28 #50 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.77 | Line yards per rush | −0.14 #74 |
| +0.87 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #61 |
| +5.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.0% #69 |
| −8.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.5% #93 |
| +5.5% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.9% #92 |
| −4.6% | Havoc created | −2.2% #103 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.014 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.195 #5 |
| −0.068 | Passing explosiveness | −0.197 #129 |
| −0.45 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.34 #21 |
| −0.144 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.080 #42 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% | Run rate | 53% #57 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.9 #69 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| East Texas A&M | Season to date | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 0.0 / 42.0 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 21.2 |
| -42.0 | Avg margin | +6.6 |
| -0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.5 |
| 58.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
East Texas A&M: last games
No games yet.
Tulsa: last 2 games
| W23-17 | |
| W24-10 |
