Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:45 PM ET
DATCU Stadium · 99° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNLV–North Texas) | 27–32 | – | 6–44 |
| Spread | North Texas −5.3 | UNLV −3 | North Texas −38 |
| Total | 58.7 | 58.5 | 50 |
| North Texas win chance | 63% | – | – |
Line moved from UNLV −6.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ North Texas +3 Won★ Over 58.5 Lost
Spread: 8.3 pts better than Vegas for North Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around North Texas by 5.312%
UNLV by 14+
25%
UNLV by 1–13
33%
North Texas by 1–13
30%
North Texas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UNLV | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.067 #99 | Offense EPA / play | +0.049 #38 |
| +0.057 #73 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.135 #113 |
| −5.0% #120 | Offense success rate | +0.2% #53 |
| +3.3% #81 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.8% #88 |
| +0.041 #36 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.038 #40 |
| −0.248 #134 | Passing EPA / play | +0.034 #51 |
| +0.099 #102 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.028 #63 |
| +0.024 #68 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.332 #138 |
| −3.8 #89 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.3 #41 |
| +0.1 #55 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.9 #106 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.6% #120 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.0% #55 |
| −1.2% #33 | Passing-down success allowed | +6.0% #119 |
| −0.70 #100 | Points per drive | +0.06 #48 |
| +0.27 #47 | Points per drive allowed | +1.03 #97 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.03 #53 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #31 |
| +0.57 #134 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.02 #44 |
| +1.0% #69 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.1% #4 |
| −3.4% #111 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.9% #91 |
| +1.4% #102 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.0% #9 |
| −0.2% #66 | Havoc created | −3.1% #121 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.235 #3 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.177 #6 |
| −0.070 #105 | Passing explosiveness | +0.062 #49 |
| +0.43 #15 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.11 #57 |
| +0.040 #97 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.158 #130 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #46 | Run rate | 52% #71 |
| −6.6 #54 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +22.6 #5 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UNLV | Season to date | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 25.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 40.6 / 33.0 |
| +1.4 | Avg margin | +7.6 |
| -3.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.4 |
| 64.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.4 |
