Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
FAU Stadium · 80° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Navy–FAU) | 32–30 | – | 30–38 |
| Spread | Navy −2.3 | Navy −4.5 | FAU −8 |
| Total | 61.8 | 59.5 | 68 |
| Florida Atlantic win chance | 44% | – | – |
Line moved from Navy −6.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ FAU +4.5 Won★ Over 59.5 Won
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Florida Atlantic (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Navy by 2.324%
Navy by 14+
32%
Navy by 1–13
28%
Florida Atlantic by 1–13
16%
Florida Atlantic by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Navy | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.003 #59 | Offense EPA / play | −0.045 #86 |
| +0.161 #130 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.170 #133 |
| +2.2% #43 | Offense success rate | −0.5% #68 |
| +3.1% #104 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.3% #128 |
| +0.166 #12 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.056 #55 |
| −0.373 #138 | Passing EPA / play | −0.118 #101 |
| +0.099 #114 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.181 #133 |
| +0.304 #136 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.124 #101 |
| −5.0 #99 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.6 #64 |
| +6.1 #111 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +14.2 #137 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.0% #120 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.8% #29 |
| +4.3% #117 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.0% #54 |
| −0.45 #87 | Points per drive | −0.08 #56 |
| +0.96 #125 | Points per drive allowed | +1.68 #135 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.41 #9 | Line yards per rush | +0.27 #37 |
| +0.24 #115 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.07 #87 |
| −6.5% #4 | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.0% #7 |
| −2.0% #107 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.4% #100 |
| −5.2% #5 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.4% #103 |
| −4.3% #137 | Havoc created | −2.2% #113 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.064 #42 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.143 #15 |
| −0.003 #119 | Passing explosiveness | +0.080 #82 |
| −0.15 #66 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.42 #117 |
| +0.172 #127 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.073 #96 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 85% #3 | Run rate | 47% #133 |
| −32.5 #115 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +11.8 #15 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Navy | Season to date | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-4 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 25.2 / 22.8 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 26.6 |
| +2.5 | Avg margin | +10.6 |
| -7.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 58.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
