Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 95° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arkansas State–Memphis) | 22–33 | – | 24–42 |
| Spread | Memphis −10.5 | Memphis −10.5 | Memphis −18 |
| Total | 55.3 | 52.5 | 66 |
| Memphis win chance | 74% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Over 52.5 Won
Total: 2.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Memphis by 10.56%
Arkansas State by 14+
19%
Arkansas State by 1–13
33%
Memphis by 1–13
41%
Memphis by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arkansas State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.088 #108 | Offense EPA / play | −0.007 #61 |
| +0.114 #105 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.058 #77 |
| −3.3% #98 | Offense success rate | −0.8% #60 |
| +5.1% #109 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.8% #65 |
| −0.114 #129 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.025 #37 |
| −0.060 #89 | Passing EPA / play | −0.027 #74 |
| +0.086 #102 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.029 #54 |
| +0.108 #102 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.066 #76 |
| −5.8 #107 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #64 |
| +6.0 #98 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #65 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.1% #91 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.8% #66 |
| +3.7% #103 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.5% #62 |
| −0.66 #106 | Points per drive | −0.25 #78 |
| +1.04 #98 | Points per drive allowed | +0.40 #55 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.35 #120 | Line yards per rush | −0.02 #45 |
| +0.17 #81 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.05 #33 |
| +3.0% #115 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.0% #66 |
| −2.3% #109 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.9% #30 |
| +2.3% #125 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #47 |
| −1.2% #86 | Havoc created | −0.4% #67 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.034 #126 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.006 #32 |
| −0.063 #136 | Passing explosiveness | +0.011 #63 |
| −0.27 #118 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.02 #36 |
| −0.056 #30 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.008 #103 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #125 | Run rate | 50% #92 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arkansas State | Season to date | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 24.0 / 23.4 | Points for / against | 38.6 / 22.4 |
| +0.6 | Avg margin | +16.2 |
| -0.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 54.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |
Arkansas State: last games
No games yet.
Memphis: last 1 games
| W27-21 |
