Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium · 86° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UConn–Southern Miss) | 23–33 | – | 48–20 |
| Spread | Southern Miss −9.9 | UConn −3.5 | UConn −28 |
| Total | 55.5 | 54.5 | 68 |
| Southern Miss win chance | 73% | – | – |
Line moved from UConn −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Southern Miss +3.5 Lost★ Over 54.5 Won
Spread: 13.4 pts better than Vegas for Southern Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Southern Miss by 9.97%
UConn by 14+
20%
UConn by 1–13
33%
Southern Miss by 1–13
40%
Southern Miss by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UConn | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.030 #77 | Offense EPA / play | −0.059 #91 |
| +0.135 #121 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.060 #80 |
| −3.9% #111 | Offense success rate | −0.8% #77 |
| +4.7% #121 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.7% #66 |
| −0.002 #84 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.059 #49 |
| −0.046 #73 | Passing EPA / play | −0.153 #113 |
| +0.076 #97 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.126 #117 |
| +0.162 #108 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.079 #80 |
| −4.2 #91 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.8 #98 |
| +6.1 #110 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.5 #92 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.7% #108 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.7% #58 |
| +9.6% #135 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.8% #110 |
| −0.51 #88 | Points per drive | −0.22 #66 |
| +0.81 #116 | Points per drive allowed | +0.65 #107 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.20 #119 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #42 |
| +0.03 #67 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.16 #91 |
| −0.2% #95 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.9% #25 |
| +1.0% #53 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #88 |
| −0.9% #81 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #74 |
| −1.9% #99 | Havoc created | −2.2% #111 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.069 #44 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.148 #125 |
| +0.192 #41 | Passing explosiveness | +0.119 #65 |
| −0.16 #71 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.64 #132 |
| +0.009 #65 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.140 #117 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #68 | Run rate | 54% #81 |
| −17.8 #102 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.5 #91 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UConn | Season to date | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 36.0 / 26.2 | Points for / against | 26.4 / 34.6 |
| +9.8 | Avg margin | -8.2 |
| +8.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.3 |
| 58.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
Southern Miss: last 2 games
| L8-43 | |
| W49-3 |
