Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 89° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (North Texas–Texas State) | 33–30 | – | 35–49 |
| Spread | North Texas −3.0 | Texas State −3 | Texas State −14 |
| Total | 63.4 | 62.5 | 84 |
| Texas State win chance | 43% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ North Texas +3 Lost★ Over 62.5 Won
Spread: 6.0 pts better than Vegas for North Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around North Texas by 3.025%
North Texas by 14+
32%
North Texas by 1–13
28%
Texas State by 1–13
15%
Texas State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| North Texas | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.106 #21 | Offense EPA / play | +0.051 #33 |
| +0.064 #74 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.148 #117 |
| +0.3% #56 | Offense success rate | +2.4% #34 |
| +4.5% #96 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.6% #82 |
| +0.072 #26 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.031 #40 |
| +0.098 #30 | Passing EPA / play | +0.066 #37 |
| −0.136 #12 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.065 #78 |
| +0.368 #138 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.213 #125 |
| +4.5 #30 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.2 #72 |
| +3.2 #76 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.0 #129 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.5% #34 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +11.8% #3 |
| +4.1% #100 | Passing-down success allowed | +6.7% #125 |
| +0.31 #43 | Points per drive | −0.34 #76 |
| +0.59 #71 | Points per drive allowed | +1.97 #133 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.09 #33 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #32 |
| −0.17 #28 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.11 #38 |
| −3.3% #17 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.1% #44 |
| −2.6% #97 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.9% #15 |
| −3.2% #10 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #28 |
| −1.9% #95 | Havoc created | −1.7% #92 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.249 #2 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.091 #105 |
| +0.119 #31 | Passing explosiveness | −0.001 #76 |
| +0.02 #50 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.77 #3 |
| +0.050 #100 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.039 #94 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #59 | Run rate | 57% #24 |
| +5.6 #7 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +9.7 #2 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| North Texas | Season to date | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 40.6 / 33.0 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 33.2 |
| +7.6 | Avg margin | +1.6 |
| +8.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.5 |
| 65.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.4 |
