Final
Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium · 87° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Memphis–Boise State) | 23–34 | – | 20–38 |
| Spread | Boise State −11.0 | Boise State −9.5 | Boise State −18 |
| Total | 56.1 | 54.5 | 58 |
| Boise State win chance | 75% | – | – |
Line moved from Boise State −6.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Boise State −9.5 Won★ Over 54.5 Won
Spread: 1.5 pts better than Vegas for Boise State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Boise State by 11.06%
Memphis by 14+
19%
Memphis by 1–13
33%
Boise State by 1–13
43%
Boise State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Memphis | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.067 #31 | Offense EPA / play | +0.033 #45 |
| +0.037 #69 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.020 #38 |
| +1.6% #40 | Offense success rate | −0.1% #56 |
| +2.1% #67 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.2% #30 |
| +0.049 #32 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.017 #52 |
| +0.173 #11 | Passing EPA / play | +0.035 #50 |
| +0.097 #100 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.037 #70 |
| +0.024 #67 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.077 #22 |
| +2.2 #43 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.8 #34 |
| +1.0 #62 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.4 #38 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.2% #58 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.0% #81 |
| −3.0% #22 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.7% #59 |
| −0.30 #72 | Points per drive | +0.17 #43 |
| +0.09 #39 | Points per drive allowed | −0.29 #20 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.25 #9 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #43 |
| +0.02 #51 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #63 |
| −2.6% #17 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.6% #34 |
| −1.6% #83 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #62 |
| −2.5% #12 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.4% #14 |
| +0.2% #54 | Havoc created | +1.1% #32 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.029 #86 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.087 #111 |
| +0.200 #7 | Passing explosiveness | +0.022 #63 |
| +0.38 #18 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.21 #82 |
| +0.041 #99 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.045 #101 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #17 | Run rate | 55% #29 |
| −7.5 #59 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +16.3 #9 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Memphis | Season to date | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 38.6 / 22.4 | Points for / against | 34.4 / 20.6 |
| +16.2 | Avg margin | +13.8 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.5 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.6 |
Memphis: last 2 games
| W42-24 | |
| W27-21 |
Boise State: last 1 games
| L27-34 |
