Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium · 60° · wind 5 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UCLA–Oregon) | 22–37 | 33–32 | – |
| Spread | Oregon −15.1 | UCLA −1.2 | Oregon −11.5 |
| Total | 58.6 | 65.3 | 58.5 |
| Oregon win chance | 82% | – | – |
Line moved from Oregon −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Oregon −11.5 ★ Over 58.5
Spread: 3.6 pts better than Vegas for Oregon (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ UCLA +11.5 ☆ Over 58.5
Spread: 12.7 pts better than Vegas for UCLA. Total: 6.8 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon by 15.14%
UCLA by 14+
14%
UCLA by 1–13
30%
Oregon by 1–13
53%
Oregon by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UCLA | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.087 #28 | Offense EPA / play | +0.169 #11 |
| −0.058 #25 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.101 #12 |
| +4.0% #21 | Offense success rate | +4.1% #20 |
| −1.5% #31 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.0% #10 |
| +0.243 #1 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.082 #27 |
| −0.126 #101 | Passing EPA / play | +0.203 #16 |
| −0.027 #36 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.005 #48 |
| −0.128 #19 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.251 #4 |
| +9.8 #11 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +14.9 #5 |
| −2.4 #39 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.3 #22 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.6% #53 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.2% #30 |
| −2.1% #32 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.4% #22 |
| +0.66 #26 | Points per drive | +2.26 #6 |
| −0.12 #30 | Points per drive allowed | −0.51 #11 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.59 #2 | Line yards per rush | +0.12 #29 |
| −0.23 #19 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.20 #23 |
| −3.0% #18 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.8% #22 |
| +2.1% #27 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.7% #68 |
| −1.2% #43 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.3% #14 |
| +1.1% #40 | Havoc created | +3.2% #14 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.105 #27 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.048 #48 |
| −0.058 #96 | Passing explosiveness | +0.182 #20 |
| +0.95 #4 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #75 |
| +0.146 #125 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.093 #44 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #29 | Run rate | 49% #99 |
| −6.7 #51 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.5 #48 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UCLA | Season to date | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 44.8 / 18.8 | Points for / against | 47.5 / 23.2 |
| +26.0 | Avg margin | +24.2 |
| +18.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.5 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.0 |
UCLA: last 4 games
| W54-3 | |
| W52-38 | |
| W28-10 | |
| W45-24 |
Oregon: last 4 games
| W41-27 | |
| W84-0 | |
| L31-39 | |
| W34-27 |
