Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
Ohio Stadium · 77° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Kent State–Ohio State) | 4–51 | – | 3–59 |
| Spread | Ohio State −46.2 | Ohio State −52.5 | Ohio State −56 |
| Total | 54.8 | 58.5 | 62 |
| Ohio State win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kent State +52.5 Lost★ Under 58.5 Lost
Spread: 6.3 pts better than Vegas for Kent State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio State by 46.20%
Kent State by 14+
0%
Kent State by 1–13
2%
Ohio State by 1–13
98%
Ohio State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kent State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.122 #114 | Offense EPA / play | +0.230 #5 |
| +0.185 #131 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.177 #5 |
| −8.4% #132 | Offense success rate | +8.5% #6 |
| +9.7% #137 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.7% #12 |
| −0.103 #107 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.066 #29 |
| −0.115 #105 | Passing EPA / play | +0.325 #4 |
| +0.224 #135 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.123 #13 |
| +0.158 #108 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.270 #3 |
| −8.6 #122 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.2 #8 |
| +14.7 #135 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −13.4 #1 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.9% #132 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.8% #28 |
| +4.2% #101 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.6% #30 |
| −1.23 #123 | Points per drive | +2.04 #6 |
| +3.07 #138 | Points per drive allowed | −1.31 #1 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.31 #103 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #28 |
| +0.71 #138 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.19 #25 |
| +2.0% #86 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.3% #58 |
| −5.4% #127 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.1% #70 |
| +3.3% #129 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.3% #9 |
| −2.5% #106 | Havoc created | +1.8% #28 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.015 #61 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.018 #60 |
| +0.207 #14 | Passing explosiveness | +0.048 #53 |
| −0.26 #85 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.01 #52 |
| −0.080 #41 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.169 #19 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #34 | Run rate | 49% #97 |
| −9.7 #56 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +1.9 #14 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kent State | Season to date | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 15.0 / 31.4 | Points for / against | 42.2 / 12.6 |
| -16.4 | Avg margin | +29.6 |
| -0.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.5 |
| 54.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.0 |
Kent State: last 2 games
| W36-15 | |
| L0-57 |
Ohio State: last 2 games
| L23-24 | |
| W56-3 |
