Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:15 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 71° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (North Dakota–Nebraska) | 17–49 | – | 7–34 |
| Spread | Nebraska −32.6 | Nebraska −27.5 | Nebraska −27 |
| Total | 66.4 | 56.5 | 41 |
| Nebraska win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from Nebraska −24.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Nebraska −27.5 Lost★ Over 56.5 Lost
Spread: 5.1 pts better than Vegas for Nebraska (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 9.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Nebraska by 32.60%
North Dakota by 14+
2%
North Dakota by 1–13
11%
Nebraska by 1–13
87%
Nebraska by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| North Dakota | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.074 | Offense EPA / play | +0.142 #14 |
| +0.122 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.019 #65 |
| −0.8% | Offense success rate | +5.3% #17 |
| +3.5% | Defense success rate allowed | −1.0% #48 |
| −0.040 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.252 #2 |
| −0.078 | Passing EPA / play | +0.022 #46 |
| +0.079 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.107 #107 |
| +0.142 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.104 #19 |
| −0.6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.5 #15 |
| +10.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.2 #55 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +10.9% #3 |
| +4.8% | Passing-down success allowed | −6.0% #12 |
| −0.51 | Points per drive | +1.27 #20 |
| +1.33 | Points per drive allowed | −0.08 #56 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.03 | Line yards per rush | +0.47 #14 |
| +0.26 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.12 #87 |
| −0.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.2% #37 |
| +0.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.7% #78 |
| −1.7% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.1% #46 |
| −0.6% | Havoc created | +1.5% #29 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.064 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.187 #8 |
| +0.140 | Passing explosiveness | +0.086 #78 |
| −0.05 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.47 #13 |
| +0.219 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.014 #71 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% | Run rate | 54% #78 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.5 #85 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| North Dakota | Season to date | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 7.0 / 34.0 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 14.2 |
| -27.0 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.8 |
| 55.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
North Dakota: last games
No games yet.
Nebraska: last 2 games
| W56-7 | |
| W49-21 |
