Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium · 62° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Akron–Minnesota) | 18–30 | – | 7–41 |
| Spread | Minnesota −12.0 | Minnesota −22.5 | Minnesota −34 |
| Total | 48.8 | 48.5 | 48 |
| Minnesota win chance | 78% | – | – |
Line moved from Minnesota −26.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Akron +22.5 Lost★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 10.5 pts better than Vegas for Akron (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Minnesota by 12.05%
Akron by 14+
17%
Akron by 1–13
33%
Minnesota by 1–13
45%
Minnesota by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Akron | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.131 #121 | Offense EPA / play | −0.038 #78 |
| +0.152 #119 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.077 #81 |
| −2.6% #82 | Offense success rate | +0.2% #58 |
| +4.8% #97 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.1% #77 |
| −0.132 #118 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.106 #108 |
| −0.105 #100 | Passing EPA / play | +0.008 #55 |
| −0.010 #45 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.082 #85 |
| +0.272 #133 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.200 #120 |
| −6.3 #103 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.6 #64 |
| +8.8 #122 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.8 #59 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.0% #57 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.6% #94 |
| +6.1% #120 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.4% #114 |
| −0.84 #106 | Points per drive | +1.24 #21 |
| +1.52 #125 | Points per drive allowed | +0.77 #83 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.10 #68 | Line yards per rush | −0.71 #134 |
| −0.01 #53 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.23 #87 |
| +2.1% #88 | Runs stuffed at the line | +7.8% #137 |
| +3.0% #23 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.2% #75 |
| +1.9% #109 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #61 |
| −0.5% #62 | Havoc created | −0.1% #55 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.106 #111 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.090 #104 |
| −0.093 #104 | Passing explosiveness | −0.071 #96 |
| −0.21 #77 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.46 #122 |
| +0.204 #134 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.083 #114 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #98 | Run rate | 42% #134 |
| −18.6 #101 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.0 #75 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Akron | Season to date | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 19.0 / 33.6 | Points for / against | 32.0 / 18.0 |
| -14.6 | Avg margin | +14.0 |
| -5.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 51.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.4 |
Akron: last 2 games
| W45-10 | |
| L16-38 |
Minnesota: last 2 games
| L13-38 | |
| W59-7 |
