Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
Michigan Stadium · 64° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UTEP–Michigan) | 9–38 | – | 17–52 |
| Spread | Michigan −29.5 | Michigan −34.5 | Michigan −35 |
| Total | 46.8 | 48.5 | 69 |
| Michigan win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Michigan −36.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTEP +34.5 Lost★ Under 48.5 Lost
Spread: 5.0 pts better than Vegas for UTEP (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Michigan by 29.50%
UTEP by 14+
3%
UTEP by 1–13
13%
Michigan by 1–13
84%
Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UTEP | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.187 #132 | Offense EPA / play | +0.047 #36 |
| +0.168 #125 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.083 #12 |
| −4.4% #102 | Offense success rate | −1.6% #73 |
| +5.9% #112 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.6% #19 |
| −0.214 #136 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.084 #24 |
| −0.030 #72 | Passing EPA / play | −0.038 #75 |
| +0.068 #80 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.029 #35 |
| +0.335 #136 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.194 #7 |
| −7.3 #114 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.6 #77 |
| +11.1 #133 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −7.3 #14 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.7% #106 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.4% #37 |
| +9.3% #134 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.8% #35 |
| −0.88 #107 | Points per drive | −0.37 #78 |
| +2.53 #136 | Points per drive allowed | −0.83 #7 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.50 #124 | Line yards per rush | +0.17 #23 |
| +0.12 #67 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.12 #66 |
| +6.5% #128 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.0% #9 |
| +2.4% #32 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #67 |
| +3.1% #127 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.9% #90 |
| −2.9% #118 | Havoc created | +0.7% #47 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.027 #81 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.074 #31 |
| +0.038 #58 | Passing explosiveness | +0.111 #34 |
| −0.12 #67 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.04 #55 |
| +0.043 #95 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.022 #71 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #70 | Run rate | 55% #32 |
| −15.5 #84 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +6.6 #6 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UTEP | Season to date | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 16.4 / 41.4 | Points for / against | 23.0 / 15.8 |
| -25.0 | Avg margin | +7.2 |
| -8.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.3 |
| 36.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
UTEP: last 2 games
| W51-10 | |
| L0-51 |
Michigan: last 2 games
| W17-10 | |
| W13-12 |
