Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Husky Stadium · 65° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Utah State–Washington) | 12–40 | – | 14–16 |
| Spread | Washington −27.7 | Washington −28.5 | Washington −2 |
| Total | 52.2 | 55.5 | 30 |
| Washington win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Washington −24.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Utah State +28.5 Won★ Under 55.5 Won
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Utah State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Washington by 27.70%
Utah State by 14+
4%
Utah State by 1–13
15%
Washington by 1–13
81%
Washington by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Utah State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.143 #122 | Offense EPA / play | +0.032 #46 |
| +0.133 #110 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.068 #17 |
| −4.9% #117 | Offense success rate | +4.1% #21 |
| +5.1% #106 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.4% #19 |
| −0.123 #114 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.020 #51 |
| −0.190 #129 | Passing EPA / play | +0.024 #54 |
| +0.177 #128 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.008 #42 |
| +0.080 #84 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.131 #10 |
| −7.2 #114 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.2 #39 |
| +9.4 #126 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.4 #18 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.6% #38 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.1% #86 |
| +7.3% #127 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.4% #10 |
| −1.25 #131 | Points per drive | +0.50 #36 |
| +1.19 #107 | Points per drive allowed | −0.24 #23 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 #95 | Line yards per rush | −0.07 #64 |
| +0.35 #111 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #62 |
| +2.8% #103 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.2% #91 |
| −4.6% #127 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.9% #38 |
| +2.1% #119 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #28 |
| −5.2% #137 | Havoc created | +3.0% #12 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.059 #98 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.000 #60 |
| +0.186 #8 | Passing explosiveness | −0.128 #126 |
| −0.38 #115 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.16 #68 |
| −0.147 #19 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.191 #11 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #116 | Run rate | 51% #84 |
| −19.4 #91 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.1 #46 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Utah State | Season to date | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 14.0 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 18.4 |
| -11.0 | Avg margin | +8.2 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -11.7 |
| 60.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.6 |
Utah State: last 1 games
| L17-29 |
Washington: last 1 games
| W24-10 |
