Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 70° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Bowling Green–Nebraska) | 9–41 | – | 7–56 |
| Spread | Nebraska −32.4 | Nebraska −30.5 | Nebraska −49 |
| Total | 49.9 | 48.5 | 63 |
| Nebraska win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from Nebraska −25.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Nebraska −30.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Won
Spread: 1.9 pts better than Vegas for Nebraska (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Nebraska by 32.40%
Bowling Green by 14+
2%
Bowling Green by 1–13
10%
Nebraska by 1–13
88%
Nebraska by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Bowling Green | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.267 #138 | Offense EPA / play | +0.090 #25 |
| +0.115 #98 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.024 #62 |
| −9.6% #135 | Offense success rate | +3.3% #27 |
| +4.8% #103 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.3% #41 |
| −0.372 #138 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.110 #14 |
| −0.085 #96 | Passing EPA / play | +0.036 #48 |
| +0.053 #77 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.104 #105 |
| +0.163 #116 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.071 #24 |
| −14.7 #138 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.6 #21 |
| +4.3 #88 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #45 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.0% #136 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +7.3% #9 |
| +0.2% #51 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.3% #19 |
| −1.76 #137 | Points per drive | +0.59 #33 |
| +1.20 #108 | Points per drive allowed | +0.14 #42 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.68 #135 | Line yards per rush | +0.18 #22 |
| +0.40 #118 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #101 |
| +5.6% #131 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.1% #41 |
| −0.6% #58 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.9% #106 |
| +1.7% #110 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.1% #63 |
| −2.6% #112 | Havoc created | +1.4% #30 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.323 #138 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.082 #26 |
| −0.007 #74 | Passing explosiveness | +0.071 #41 |
| −0.73 #138 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.08 #33 |
| +0.063 #106 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.013 #85 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #19 | Run rate | 53% #56 |
| −13.2 #76 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.0 #63 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Bowling Green | Season to date | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 11.4 / 33.0 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 14.2 |
| -21.6 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| -5.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.8 |
| 48.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Bowling Green: last 1 games
| L13-20 |
Nebraska: last 1 games
| W49-21 |
