Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 78° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Howard–Indiana) | 0–60 | – | 0–55 |
| Spread | Indiana −60.2 | Indiana −57.5 | Indiana −55 |
| Total | 60.4 | 67.5 | 55 |
| Indiana win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Indiana −56.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Indiana −57.5 Lost★ Under 67.5 Won
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for Indiana (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.1 pts below Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Indiana by 60.20%
Howard by 14+
0%
Howard by 1–13
0%
Indiana by 1–13
100%
Indiana by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Howard | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.357 | Offense EPA / play | +0.194 #5 |
| +0.284 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.057 #24 |
| −20.4% | Offense success rate | +6.5% #9 |
| +11.4% | Defense success rate allowed | −5.3% #11 |
| −0.285 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.063 #52 |
| −0.349 | Passing EPA / play | +0.403 #1 |
| +0.148 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.072 #25 |
| +0.313 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.006 #57 |
| −24.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.0 #5 |
| +18.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.7 #7 |
| Situational | ||
| −17.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +7.2% #8 |
| +16.1% | Passing-down success allowed | −2.6% #32 |
| −3.50 | Points per drive | +1.77 #8 |
| +2.39 | Points per drive allowed | −0.92 #12 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.94 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #78 |
| +0.43 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.25 #26 |
| +4.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.9% #38 |
| −5.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.5% #43 |
| +5.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −5.4% #4 |
| −2.8% | Havoc created | +1.6% #22 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.018 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.053 #104 |
| +0.622 | Passing explosiveness | +0.246 #21 |
| −0.97 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.21 #74 |
| +0.150 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.051 #86 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% | Run rate | 61% #19 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −4.2 #53 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Howard | Season to date | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 3.5 / 56.5 | Points for / against | 44.2 / 10.8 |
| -53.0 | Avg margin | +33.4 |
| -3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.9 |
| 54.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.2 |
Howard: last games
No games yet.
Indiana: last 1 games
| W52-16 |
