Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:30 PM ET
Ohio Stadium · 81° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ball State–Ohio State) | 1–47 | – | 3–56 |
| Spread | Ohio State −46.1 | Ohio State −50.5 | Ohio State −53 |
| Total | 48.8 | 55.5 | 59 |
| Ohio State win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Ohio State −49.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ball State +50.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Lost
Spread: 4.4 pts better than Vegas for Ball State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 6.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio State by 46.10%
Ball State by 14+
0%
Ball State by 1–13
2%
Ohio State by 1–13
98%
Ohio State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ball State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.139 #130 | Offense EPA / play | +0.194 #2 |
| +0.118 #108 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.157 #2 |
| −7.9% #136 | Offense success rate | +8.8% #1 |
| +6.3% #122 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.8% #1 |
| −0.098 #118 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.099 #11 |
| −0.156 #132 | Passing EPA / play | +0.239 #1 |
| +0.107 #117 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.156 #2 |
| +0.136 #117 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.166 #4 |
| −8.7 #127 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +10.1 #7 |
| +8.4 #119 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −13.2 #1 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.9% #133 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +7.2% #2 |
| +4.4% #114 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.3% #4 |
| −1.12 #132 | Points per drive | +1.91 #3 |
| +1.24 #109 | Points per drive allowed | −1.01 #2 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.38 #126 | Line yards per rush | +0.21 #12 |
| +0.24 #98 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.35 #5 |
| +3.3% #121 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.2% #25 |
| −1.1% #74 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.1% #4 |
| +2.4% #128 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #13 |
| −2.4% #114 | Havoc created | +3.1% #9 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.021 #103 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.016 #13 |
| +0.014 #59 | Passing explosiveness | −0.035 #124 |
| −0.17 #91 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.16 #18 |
| −0.011 #101 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.096 #4 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #30 | Run rate | 51% #73 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ball State | Season to date | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.2 / 37.8 | Points for / against | 42.2 / 12.6 |
| -18.6 | Avg margin | +29.6 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.5 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.0 |
Ball State: last games
No games yet.
Ohio State: last games
No games yet.