Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET
Michigan Stadium · 70° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WMU–Michigan) | 16–31 | – | 12–13 |
| Spread | Michigan −15.4 | Michigan −27.5 | Michigan −1 |
| Total | 46.6 | 50.5 | 25 |
| Michigan win chance | 84% | – | – |
Line moved from Michigan −26.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WMU +27.5 Won★ Under 50.5 Won
Spread: 12.1 pts better than Vegas for Western Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 3.9 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Michigan by 15.43%
Western Michigan by 14+
13%
Western Michigan by 1–13
30%
Michigan by 1–13
54%
Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.078 #100 | Offense EPA / play | +0.053 #30 |
| +0.043 #64 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.032 #27 |
| −2.5% #90 | Offense success rate | +2.0% #38 |
| +2.2% #72 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.9% #29 |
| −0.054 #86 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.087 #15 |
| −0.122 #123 | Passing EPA / play | +0.038 #36 |
| +0.047 #68 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.021 #30 |
| +0.059 #70 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.048 #23 |
| −4.7 #96 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.6 #39 |
| +0.7 #51 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.4 #25 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.6% #125 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.6% #30 |
| +2.5% #77 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.4% #34 |
| −0.49 #89 | Points per drive | +0.58 #24 |
| +0.61 #69 | Points per drive allowed | −0.14 #23 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.18 #76 | Line yards per rush | +0.14 #21 |
| +0.17 #85 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.10 #25 |
| +1.5% #81 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.3% #21 |
| −2.2% #108 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.1% #53 |
| −1.0% #34 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.0% #69 |
| −0.8% #79 | Havoc created | +1.6% #21 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.025 #115 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.029 #4 |
| −0.058 #134 | Passing explosiveness | −0.026 #114 |
| −0.26 #112 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.25 #6 |
| −0.047 #37 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.019 #82 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 64% #5 | Run rate | 53% #49 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WMU | Season to date | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 23.2 / 19.4 | Points for / against | 23.0 / 15.8 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | +7.2 |
| +0.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.3 |
| 54.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
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