Final
Sat, Sep 5, 4:15 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium · 87° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NIU–Iowa) | 9–39 | – | 0–40 |
| Spread | Iowa −30.8 | Iowa −31.5 | Iowa −40 |
| Total | 48.0 | 44.5 | 40 |
| Iowa win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Iowa −29.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NIU +31.5 Lost★ Over 44.5 Lost
Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for Northern Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Iowa by 30.80%
Northern Illinois by 14+
2%
Northern Illinois by 1–13
12%
Iowa by 1–13
86%
Iowa by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.113 #121 | Offense EPA / play | +0.042 #37 |
| +0.137 #121 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.073 #14 |
| −6.3% #127 | Offense success rate | +2.3% #31 |
| +6.3% #123 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.7% #16 |
| −0.092 #112 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.067 #22 |
| −0.132 #128 | Passing EPA / play | +0.033 #40 |
| +0.110 #121 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.027 #27 |
| +0.129 #113 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.082 #17 |
| −8.2 #125 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #23 |
| +6.1 #99 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −7.6 #11 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.8% #128 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.5% #60 |
| +6.1% #130 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.3% #12 |
| −0.66 #105 | Points per drive | +0.66 #21 |
| +1.26 #111 | Points per drive allowed | −0.53 #14 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.40 #129 | Line yards per rush | +0.17 #18 |
| +0.34 #127 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.05 #34 |
| +2.9% #114 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #9 |
| −2.9% #117 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.3% #43 |
| +1.9% #117 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.4% #2 |
| −1.6% #97 | Havoc created | +1.1% #30 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.002 #47 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.004 #54 |
| +0.026 #45 | Passing explosiveness | +0.023 #48 |
| −0.18 #92 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.00 #41 |
| −0.034 #55 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.080 #10 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #21 | Run rate | 60% #8 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NIU | Season to date | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 13.8 / 36.2 | Points for / against | 29.0 / 12.6 |
| -22.5 | Avg margin | +16.4 |
| -3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.6 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.8 |
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