Final
Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · 84° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UAB–Illinois) | 17–38 | – | 23–42 |
| Spread | Illinois −20.6 | Illinois −25.5 | Illinois −19 |
| Total | 55.1 | 53.5 | 65 |
| Illinois win chance | 90% | – | – |
Line moved from Illinois −27.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UAB +25.5 Won★ Over 53.5 Won
Spread: 4.9 pts better than Vegas for UAB (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Illinois by 20.62%
UAB by 14+
8%
UAB by 1–13
24%
Illinois by 1–13
66%
Illinois by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UAB | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.079 #113 | Offense EPA / play | +0.053 #31 |
| +0.122 #128 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.005 #48 |
| −2.1% #99 | Offense success rate | +3.8% #21 |
| +4.8% #128 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.2% #54 |
| −0.004 #95 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.054 #45 |
| −0.101 #104 | Passing EPA / play | +0.074 #19 |
| +0.086 #123 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.028 #31 |
| +0.129 #115 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.019 #50 |
| −4.7 #101 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.1 #32 |
| +7.9 #127 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.6 #28 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.2% #78 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.7% #26 |
| +1.7% #95 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.1% #53 |
| −0.46 #94 | Points per drive | +0.60 #21 |
| +0.94 #127 | Points per drive allowed | −0.26 #35 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.08 #73 | Line yards per rush | +0.18 #41 |
| +0.23 #129 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.08 #44 |
| −1.7% #64 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.5% #41 |
| −2.1% #127 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.7% #53 |
| −0.6% #100 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #38 |
| −1.7% #114 | Havoc created | +0.0% #56 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.015 #65 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.005 #85 |
| +0.093 #84 | Passing explosiveness | +0.132 #45 |
| −0.20 #92 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.13 #65 |
| +0.102 #137 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.066 #3 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #122 | Run rate | 58% #37 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UAB | Season to date | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 24.0 / 23.4 | Points for / against | 30.6 / 26.0 |
| +0.6 | Avg margin | +4.6 |
| +0.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.4 |
| 64.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
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