Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · 64° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Pittsburgh–Boston College) | 31–15 | – |
| Spread | Pittsburgh −15.3 | No line |
| Total | 45.8 | n/a |
| Boston College win chance | 16% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Pittsburgh by 15.353%
Pittsburgh by 14+
30%
Pittsburgh by 1–13
13%
Boston College by 1–13
3%
Boston College by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Pittsburgh | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.041 #45 | Offense EPA / play | −0.165 #124 |
| −0.051 #27 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.015 #56 |
| −2.1% #80 | Offense success rate | −5.6% #111 |
| −4.5% #13 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.1% #53 |
| +0.009 #58 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.113 #110 |
| +0.039 #55 | Passing EPA / play | −0.182 #116 |
| −0.154 #7 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.041 #64 |
| +0.003 #55 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.023 #64 |
| +5.0 #31 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.5 #129 |
| −4.0 #25 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.2 #73 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.0% #44 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.4% #113 |
| −5.3% #9 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.5% #108 |
| +1.00 #18 | Points per drive | −1.40 #128 |
| −0.29 #21 | Points per drive allowed | +0.39 #60 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.06 #40 | Line yards per rush | −0.39 #112 |
| −0.71 #3 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.06 #63 |
| +2.0% #86 | Runs stuffed at the line | +6.4% #128 |
| +5.4% #6 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.1% #39 |
| −1.0% #48 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.5% #127 |
| +1.6% #29 | Havoc created | +0.8% #44 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.046 #49 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.036 #53 |
| +0.170 #22 | Passing explosiveness | +0.028 #59 |
| −0.04 #61 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.32 #95 |
| +0.047 #98 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.145 #26 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #106 | Run rate | 52% #69 |
| −11.4 #90 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.1 #81 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Pittsburgh | Season to date | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 0-5 |
| 38.4 / 13.4 | Points for / against | 19.0 / 23.4 |
| +25.0 | Avg margin | -4.4 |
| +7.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.9 |
| 57.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.0 |
Pittsburgh: last 5 games
| W35-33 | |
| W59-0 | |
| W27-13 | |
| W12-7 | |
| W59-14 |
Boston College: last 5 games
| L16-25 | |
| L14-21 | |
| W22-16 | |
| W28-21 | |
| L15-34 |
