Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (California–UNLV) | 22–27 | – | 31–39 |
| Spread | UNLV −4.2 | UNLV −1.5 | UNLV −8 |
| Total | 49.1 | 51.5 | 70 |
| UNLV win chance | 60% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UNLV −1.5 Won★ Under 51.5 Lost
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for UNLV (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UNLV by 4.213%
California by 14+
27%
California by 1–13
34%
UNLV by 1–13
27%
UNLV by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| California | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.091 #100 | Offense EPA / play | −0.106 #107 |
| +0.083 #81 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.056 #72 |
| −2.9% #89 | Offense success rate | −5.3% #108 |
| +2.2% #69 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.7% #74 |
| −0.159 #120 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.090 #102 |
| −0.011 #65 | Passing EPA / play | −0.154 #113 |
| +0.156 #118 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.144 #113 |
| −0.024 #46 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.003 #52 |
| −5.1 #92 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.0 #107 |
| +3.6 #85 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.4 #59 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.4% #68 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.7% #123 |
| −2.0% #33 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.5% #59 |
| −0.71 #101 | Points per drive | −0.82 #105 |
| +0.53 #68 | Points per drive allowed | +0.45 #63 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.15 #76 | Line yards per rush | −0.07 #58 |
| +0.37 #114 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.67 #138 |
| +2.0% #85 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.3% #53 |
| −8.2% #137 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.4% #126 |
| +2.0% #108 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.2% #92 |
| −3.1% #116 | Havoc created | −0.3% #61 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.072 #102 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.049 #93 |
| −0.060 #94 | Passing explosiveness | −0.086 #103 |
| −0.53 #125 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.07 #40 |
| +0.071 #108 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.142 #123 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 43% #131 | Run rate | 53% #49 |
| −10.3 #69 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.4 #71 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| California | Season to date | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 27.0 / 26.6 | Points for / against | 25.0 / 23.6 |
| +0.4 | Avg margin | +1.4 |
| -9.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.6 |
| 66.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.4 |
UNLV: last 4 games
| W38-10 | |
| L6-44 | |
| W21-6 | |
| L21-27 |
