Final
Fri, Oct 2, 7:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium · 69° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Pittsburgh–Virginia Tech) | 29–27 | – | 35–33 |
| Spread | Pittsburgh −1.8 | Virginia Tech −1.5 | Pittsburgh −2 |
| Total | 55.9 | 53.5 | 68 |
| Virginia Tech win chance | 45% | – | – |
Line moved from Virginia Tech −5.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Pittsburgh +1.5 Won★ Over 53.5 Won
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Pittsburgh (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Pittsburgh by 1.822%
Pittsburgh by 14+
32%
Pittsburgh by 1–13
29%
Virginia Tech by 1–13
16%
Virginia Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Pittsburgh | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.061 #35 | Offense EPA / play | +0.096 #26 |
| −0.033 #36 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.095 #90 |
| +0.6% #53 | Offense success rate | +4.1% #21 |
| −4.1% #13 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.8% #77 |
| +0.022 #53 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.092 #23 |
| +0.039 #52 | Passing EPA / play | +0.063 #45 |
| −0.067 #20 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.066 #80 |
| −0.078 #28 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.105 #88 |
| +5.0 #28 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.0 #27 |
| −4.7 #19 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.4 #75 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.2% #29 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.5% #17 |
| −2.9% #25 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.7% #36 |
| +1.19 #15 | Points per drive | +1.19 #16 |
| −0.19 #26 | Points per drive allowed | +0.74 #83 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.10 #37 | Line yards per rush | −0.14 #75 |
| −0.55 #4 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.50 #7 |
| +1.9% #84 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.8% #117 |
| +4.9% #10 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.4% #15 |
| −1.1% #44 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #28 |
| +1.2% #34 | Havoc created | +2.6% #18 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.006 #66 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.125 #19 |
| +0.046 #56 | Passing explosiveness | −0.064 #98 |
| +0.01 #52 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.22 #26 |
| +0.002 #87 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.189 #15 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #103 | Run rate | 48% #106 |
| −13.7 #105 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −22.4 #135 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Pittsburgh | Season to date | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 2-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 38.4 / 13.4 | Points for / against | 41.2 / 19.8 |
| +25.0 | Avg margin | +21.4 |
| +7.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.3 |
| 57.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.0 |
Pittsburgh: last 4 games
| W59-0 | |
| W27-13 | |
| W12-7 | |
| W59-14 |
Virginia Tech: last 4 games
| W21-14 | |
| W35-26 | |
| W44-21 | |
| W73-3 |
