Final
Fri, Sep 18, 7:30 PM ET
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 76° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Miami–Wake Forest) | 40–20 | – | 33–20 |
| Spread | Miami −20.0 | Miami −20.5 | Miami −13 |
| Total | 59.7 | 55.5 | 53 |
| Wake Forest win chance | 11% | – | – |
Line moved from Miami −19.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wake Forest +20.5 Won★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Wake Forest (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.2 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami by 20.064%
Miami by 14+
25%
Miami by 1–13
9%
Wake Forest by 1–13
2%
Wake Forest by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Miami | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.284 #1 | Offense EPA / play | +0.127 #17 |
| −0.073 #23 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.009 #59 |
| +13.0% #1 | Offense success rate | +1.6% #49 |
| −3.2% #22 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.5% #75 |
| +0.165 #17 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.151 #20 |
| +0.405 #2 | Passing EPA / play | +0.098 #27 |
| −0.029 #43 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.021 #47 |
| −0.126 #15 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.020 #64 |
| +14.0 #5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.2 #41 |
| −8.7 #10 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.0 #60 |
| Situational | ||
| +9.3% #7 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.2% #17 |
| −5.1% #19 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.1% #105 |
| +2.91 #2 | Points per drive | −0.01 #53 |
| −0.56 #20 | Points per drive allowed | −0.15 #52 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.48 #13 | Line yards per rush | +0.38 #21 |
| −0.08 #53 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.33 #16 |
| −5.1% #23 | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.7% #8 |
| +2.2% #40 | Opponent runs stuffed | +7.1% #5 |
| −6.0% #5 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.9% #17 |
| +0.0% #58 | Havoc created | −0.8% #76 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.069 #104 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.049 #55 |
| +0.095 #75 | Passing explosiveness | +0.297 #18 |
| +0.07 #40 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.27 #23 |
| −0.250 #4 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.312 #3 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #88 | Run rate | 56% #65 |
| −26.9 #129 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.9 #63 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Miami | Season to date | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Away | 2-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 49.6 / 9.8 | Points for / against | 36.6 / 23.0 |
| +39.8 | Avg margin | +13.6 |
| +7.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.1 |
| 48.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.0 |
Miami: last 2 games
| W77-7 | |
| W45-6 |
