Final
Thu, Sep 17, 7:30 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium · 74° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Syracuse–Pittsburgh) | 17–32 | – | 13–27 |
| Spread | Pittsburgh −15.2 | Pittsburgh −10.5 | Pittsburgh −14 |
| Total | 48.4 | 51.5 | 40 |
| Pittsburgh win chance | 83% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Pittsburgh −10.5 Won★ Under 51.5 Won
Spread: 4.7 pts better than Vegas for Pittsburgh (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 3.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Pittsburgh by 15.23%
Syracuse by 14+
14%
Syracuse by 1–13
30%
Pittsburgh by 1–13
53%
Pittsburgh by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Syracuse | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.122 #116 | Offense EPA / play | +0.029 #45 |
| +0.004 #45 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.064 #21 |
| −4.2% #99 | Offense success rate | −0.2% #65 |
| +1.7% #61 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.7% #10 |
| −0.084 #99 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.059 #86 |
| −0.107 #101 | Passing EPA / play | +0.095 #31 |
| +0.016 #53 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.163 #6 |
| −0.054 #30 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.036 #37 |
| −2.3 #74 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #31 |
| +1.5 #63 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.2 #18 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.7% #62 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.3% #40 |
| −4.1% #17 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.7% #29 |
| +0.20 #46 | Points per drive | +0.12 #48 |
| +0.89 #88 | Points per drive allowed | −0.59 #11 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.40 #116 | Line yards per rush | −0.12 #70 |
| −0.34 #13 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.86 #4 |
| +2.8% #101 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.3% #95 |
| +5.2% #9 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.4% #30 |
| +1.0% #97 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.2% #37 |
| −0.9% #74 | Havoc created | +2.7% #15 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.051 #91 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.049 #90 |
| +0.098 #39 | Passing explosiveness | +0.085 #41 |
| −0.20 #75 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.12 #66 |
| −0.159 #23 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.163 #131 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #122 | Run rate | 48% #111 |
| −23.9 #120 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.6 #32 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Syracuse | Season to date | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 34.8 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 38.4 / 13.4 |
| +11.8 | Avg margin | +25.0 |
| +2.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.5 |
| 72.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.8 |
Syracuse: last 2 games
| L18-21 | |
| W66-3 |
Pittsburgh: last 2 games
| W12-7 | |
| W59-14 |
