Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · 75° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (GASO–Clemson) | 18–33 | – | 7–22 |
| Spread | Clemson −14.8 | Clemson −20.5 | Clemson −15 |
| Total | 50.6 | 54.5 | 29 |
| Clemson win chance | 82% | – | – |
Line moved from Clemson −26.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ GASO +20.5 Won★ Under 54.5 Won
Spread: 5.7 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Southern (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.9 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Clemson by 14.84%
Georgia Southern by 14+
14%
Georgia Southern by 1–13
30%
Clemson by 1–13
52%
Clemson by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| GASO | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.030 #76 | Offense EPA / play | −0.022 #69 |
| +0.092 #96 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.025 #41 |
| +0.7% #57 | Offense success rate | −1.0% #78 |
| +2.4% #92 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.3% #42 |
| −0.019 #93 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.026 #96 |
| −0.053 #82 | Passing EPA / play | −0.023 #65 |
| +0.076 #104 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.028 #76 |
| +0.052 #78 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.121 #13 |
| −3.9 #91 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.2 #40 |
| +4.3 #100 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #58 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.5% #56 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.6% #70 |
| −0.2% #63 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.2% #113 |
| −0.46 #89 | Points per drive | +0.27 #40 |
| +0.66 #107 | Points per drive allowed | +0.03 #57 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.33 #26 | Line yards per rush | −0.14 #115 |
| −0.11 #43 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.11 #95 |
| −5.5% #11 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.9% #131 |
| −0.5% #82 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.0% #108 |
| −0.5% #98 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #108 |
| +1.6% #23 | Havoc created | +0.7% #42 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.118 #124 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.132 #127 |
| +0.067 #89 | Passing explosiveness | −0.037 #126 |
| −0.16 #69 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.10 #53 |
| −0.335 #1 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.097 #104 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #127 | Run rate | 47% #134 |
| −30.9 #111 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +18.3 #7 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| GASO | Season to date | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.8 / 23.8 | Points for / against | 19.4 / 25.8 |
| +1.0 | Avg margin | -6.4 |
| +3.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.8 |
| 64.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.4 |
Georgia Southern: last 1 games
| W31-0 |
Clemson: last 1 games
| L10-51 |
