Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Kenan Stadium · 84° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ETSU–North Carolina) | 11–48 | – | 3–35 |
| Spread | North Carolina −37.2 | North Carolina −36.5 | North Carolina −32 |
| Total | 59.2 | 55.5 | 38 |
| North Carolina win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from North Carolina −34.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ North Carolina −36.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for North Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around North Carolina by 37.20%
East Tennessee State by 14+
1%
East Tennessee State by 1–13
7%
North Carolina by 1–13
92%
North Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| ETSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.192 | Offense EPA / play | −0.033 #80 |
| +0.375 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.036 #36 |
| −7.3% | Offense success rate | +1.6% #50 |
| +11.1% | Defense success rate allowed | −2.5% #30 |
| −0.141 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.076 #120 |
| −0.144 | Passing EPA / play | +0.014 #52 |
| +0.261 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.005 #60 |
| +0.455 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.091 #19 |
| −7.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.4 #95 |
| +20.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.0 #21 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.9% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.8% #31 |
| +8.4% | Passing-down success allowed | −4.6% #15 |
| −1.91 | Points per drive | −0.44 #86 |
| +2.24 | Points per drive allowed | −0.45 #33 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.19 | Line yards per rush | +0.21 #48 |
| +0.67 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.13 #39 |
| −1.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.5% #54 |
| −7.9% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #92 |
| −0.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.4% #70 |
| −7.6% | Havoc created | −0.8% #82 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.148 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.200 #134 |
| +0.135 | Passing explosiveness | +0.051 #97 |
| −0.40 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.35 #105 |
| +0.094 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.054 #45 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% | Run rate | 55% #73 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.7 #28 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| ETSU | Season to date | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 3.0 / 35.0 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 19.5 |
| -32.0 | Avg margin | +4.5 |
| +4.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.2 |
| 60.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.0 |
East Tennessee State: last games
No games yet.
North Carolina: last 1 games
| W15-10 |
