Final
Fri, Sep 11, 7:00 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 79° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Villanova–Louisville) | 9–52 | – | 13–59 |
| Spread | Louisville −42.9 | Louisville −39.5 | Louisville −46 |
| Total | 61.3 | 56.5 | 72 |
| Louisville win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Louisville −36.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisville −39.5 Won★ Over 56.5 Won
Spread: 3.4 pts better than Vegas for Louisville (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.8 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisville by 42.90%
Villanova by 14+
0%
Villanova by 1–13
3%
Louisville by 1–13
96%
Louisville by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Villanova | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.222 | Offense EPA / play | +0.096 #21 |
| +0.144 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.044 #29 |
| −9.6% | Offense success rate | +4.5% #20 |
| +9.0% | Defense success rate allowed | −1.6% #36 |
| −0.206 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.100 #29 |
| −0.070 | Passing EPA / play | +0.099 #22 |
| +0.055 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.030 #38 |
| +0.166 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.006 #58 |
| −14.5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.4 #21 |
| +9.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.7 #51 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.1% #65 |
| +7.6% | Passing-down success allowed | −6.8% #6 |
| −1.89 | Points per drive | +0.34 #36 |
| +1.42 | Points per drive allowed | −0.43 #34 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.89 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #100 |
| +0.42 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.12 #41 |
| +7.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.3% #104 |
| −5.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #91 |
| +0.7% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #52 |
| −0.9% | Havoc created | −0.7% #80 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.089 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.077 #33 |
| +0.204 | Passing explosiveness | +0.151 #50 |
| −0.08 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.46 #14 |
| −0.040 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.176 #128 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% | Run rate | 54% #82 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +12.4 #13 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Villanova | Season to date | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 13.0 / 59.0 | Points for / against | 38.6 / 29.2 |
| -46.0 | Avg margin | +9.4 |
| -6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.2 |
| 58.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.4 |
Villanova: last games
No games yet.
Louisville: last 1 games
| L38-41 |
