Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium · 86° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arizona–BYU) | 21–29 | – | 17–28 |
| Spread | BYU −7.8 | BYU −6.5 | BYU −11 |
| Total | 49.3 | 49.5 | 45 |
| BYU win chance | 69% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ BYU −6.5 Won★ Under 49.5 Won
Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for BYU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around BYU by 7.88%
Arizona by 14+
23%
Arizona by 1–13
34%
BYU by 1–13
35%
BYU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arizona | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.037 #75 | Offense EPA / play | +0.103 #20 |
| −0.055 #19 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.078 #15 |
| +2.8% #34 | Offense success rate | +4.8% #14 |
| −2.8% #17 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.2% #31 |
| +0.002 #56 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.125 #12 |
| −0.056 #87 | Passing EPA / play | +0.056 #38 |
| −0.038 #30 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.057 #25 |
| −0.013 #48 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.032 #37 |
| −0.8 #59 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.5 #22 |
| −3.4 #27 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.4 #47 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.7% #66 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.8% #79 |
| +2.9% #86 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.4% #42 |
| −0.37 #76 | Points per drive | +0.73 #30 |
| +0.29 #48 | Points per drive allowed | +0.53 #62 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.24 #10 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #13 |
| −0.17 #28 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.22 #21 |
| −3.2% #8 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.5% #22 |
| +3.8% #11 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.3% #18 |
| −2.1% #20 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #25 |
| +5.2% #2 | Havoc created | +0.3% #50 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.116 #118 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.035 #42 |
| −0.105 #120 | Passing explosiveness | −0.095 #118 |
| +0.09 #31 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.16 #69 |
| +0.127 #126 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.114 #29 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #122 | Run rate | 55% #31 |
| −25.0 #101 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −45.8 #135 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arizona | Season to date | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 32.4 / 16.6 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 14.2 |
| +15.8 | Avg margin | +23.0 |
| -0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.0 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.8 |
Arizona: last 1 games
| W35-7 |
BYU: last 1 games
| W63-7 |
