Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium · 64° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Utah State–Utah) | 15–41 | – | 0–33 |
| Spread | Utah −25.8 | Utah −26.5 | Utah −33 |
| Total | 55.6 | 55.5 | 33 |
| Utah win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from Utah −27.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Utah State +26.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for Utah State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Utah by 25.81%
Utah State by 14+
5%
Utah State by 1–13
18%
Utah by 1–13
77%
Utah by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Utah State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.166 #128 | Offense EPA / play | +0.156 #11 |
| +0.072 #77 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.028 #61 |
| −5.5% #119 | Offense success rate | +5.8% #15 |
| +2.5% #71 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.9% #26 |
| −0.196 #135 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.135 #12 |
| −0.145 #114 | Passing EPA / play | +0.159 #20 |
| +0.102 #100 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.168 #123 |
| +0.012 #57 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.133 #13 |
| −7.0 #110 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +11.5 #11 |
| +3.2 #78 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.1 #27 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.0% #21 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +14.9% #1 |
| +1.7% #68 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.5% #56 |
| −1.23 #122 | Points per drive | +1.87 #10 |
| +0.33 #57 | Points per drive allowed | +0.41 #65 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.36 #111 | Line yards per rush | +0.39 #6 |
| +0.14 #70 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #59 |
| +7.2% #131 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.5% #35 |
| −1.8% #82 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.8% #63 |
| +3.2% #128 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #21 |
| −4.6% #135 | Havoc created | +1.4% #36 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.067 #100 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.060 #37 |
| +0.269 #11 | Passing explosiveness | +0.004 #74 |
| −0.45 #119 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.31 #95 |
| −0.213 #11 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.015 #87 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #109 | Run rate | 54% #43 |
| −8.0 #48 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −19.4 #105 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Utah State | Season to date | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 14.0 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 43.2 / 10.2 |
| -11.0 | Avg margin | +33.0 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.5 |
| 60.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.0 |
Utah State: last 2 games
| L14-16 | |
| L17-29 |
