Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
FBC Mortgage Stadium · 77° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Georgia State–UCF) | 18–33 | – | 30–44 |
| Spread | UCF −14.4 | UCF −17.5 | UCF −14 |
| Total | 51.1 | 50.5 | 74 |
| UCF win chance | 82% | – | – |
Line moved from UCF −21 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia State +17.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for Georgia State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UCF by 14.44%
Georgia State by 14+
15%
Georgia State by 1–13
31%
UCF by 1–13
51%
UCF by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Georgia State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.008 #58 | Offense EPA / play | −0.096 #102 |
| +0.117 #98 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.056 #25 |
| +1.0% #43 | Offense success rate | −2.2% #79 |
| +4.4% #94 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.9% #25 |
| +0.010 #48 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.033 #72 |
| +0.038 #45 | Passing EPA / play | −0.149 #116 |
| +0.142 #114 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.053 #31 |
| +0.114 #98 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.047 #33 |
| −2.1 #70 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.7 #51 |
| +7.4 #109 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.8 #16 |
| Situational | ||
| +8.7% #12 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.9% #95 |
| +0.0% #46 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.1% #45 |
| −0.05 #53 | Points per drive | +0.61 #33 |
| +1.40 #117 | Points per drive allowed | +0.05 #34 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.08 #36 | Line yards per rush | −0.51 #125 |
| +0.34 #102 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.24 #18 |
| −0.3% #56 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.2% #105 |
| +0.5% #50 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.5% #47 |
| −2.6% #16 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.6% #105 |
| −2.7% #112 | Havoc created | −0.4% #60 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.023 #76 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.111 #20 |
| +0.005 #73 | Passing explosiveness | −0.136 #115 |
| −0.49 #128 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.21 #28 |
| −0.030 #66 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.014 #86 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #66 | Run rate | 48% #115 |
| −32.4 #135 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.7 #85 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Georgia State | Season to date | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 39.4 / 19.0 | Points for / against | 32.4 / 17.6 |
| +20.4 | Avg margin | +14.8 |
| +17.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.9 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.2 |
Georgia State: last 2 games
| W31-17 | |
| W59-10 |
UCF: last 2 games
| L7-12 | |
| W73-6 |
