Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET
Canvas Stadium · 67° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BYU–Colorado State) | 37–20 | – | 41–23 |
| Spread | BYU −16.5 | BYU −17.5 | BYU −18 |
| Total | 57.0 | 54.5 | 64 |
| Colorado State win chance | 15% | – | – |
Line moved from BYU −21 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Colorado State +17.5 Lost★ Over 54.5 Won
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Colorado State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around BYU by 16.556%
BYU by 14+
28%
BYU by 1–13
12%
Colorado State by 1–13
3%
Colorado State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| BYU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.168 #10 | Offense EPA / play | +0.025 #46 |
| −0.033 #33 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.109 #95 |
| +7.0% #9 | Offense success rate | −1.6% #74 |
| −1.4% #32 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.0% #114 |
| +0.167 #8 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.005 #52 |
| +0.084 #33 | Passing EPA / play | +0.017 #53 |
| −0.020 #42 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.168 #124 |
| −0.008 #46 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.111 #96 |
| +5.9 #25 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.8 #60 |
| −1.6 #43 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.6 #112 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.7% #76 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.2% #55 |
| +2.8% #80 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.8% #118 |
| +0.50 #35 | Points per drive | −0.68 #95 |
| +0.39 #62 | Points per drive allowed | +1.32 #115 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.42 #5 | Line yards per rush | −0.54 #127 |
| −0.18 #26 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.67 #136 |
| −4.4% #6 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.7% #112 |
| +3.3% #18 | Opponent runs stuffed | −8.1% #137 |
| −5.8% #1 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.5% #118 |
| −0.4% #61 | Havoc created | +2.8% #14 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.011 #62 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.155 #11 |
| −0.132 #114 | Passing explosiveness | −0.034 #85 |
| −0.38 #106 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.60 #8 |
| −0.117 #32 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.077 #110 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #31 | Run rate | 48% #114 |
| −20.6 #110 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −25.6 #126 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| BYU | Season to date | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 37.2 / 14.2 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 38.6 |
| +23.0 | Avg margin | -1.2 |
| +3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 51.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.8 |
Colorado State: last 2 games
| W58-24 | |
| W35-13 |
