Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium · 78° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UCF–Pittsburgh) | 21–35 | – | 7–12 |
| Spread | Pittsburgh −14.0 | Pittsburgh −7.5 | Pittsburgh −5 |
| Total | 56.3 | 55.5 | 19 |
| Pittsburgh win chance | 81% | – | – |
Line moved from Pittsburgh −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Pittsburgh −7.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 6.5 pts better than Vegas for Pittsburgh (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Pittsburgh by 14.04%
UCF by 14+
15%
UCF by 1–13
31%
Pittsburgh by 1–13
50%
Pittsburgh by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UCF | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.056 #91 | Offense EPA / play | +0.076 #29 |
| −0.000 #48 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.005 #45 |
| −1.5% #70 | Offense success rate | +1.1% #47 |
| −0.4% #39 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.2% #15 |
| +0.063 #28 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.027 #45 |
| −0.157 #117 | Passing EPA / play | +0.104 #23 |
| +0.036 #68 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.098 #13 |
| −0.044 #33 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.022 #66 |
| +4.0 #31 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +10.2 #13 |
| −0.1 #50 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.1 #40 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.0% #84 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.5% #28 |
| −0.6% #40 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.3% #43 |
| +1.03 #22 | Points per drive | +0.95 #27 |
| +0.60 #68 | Points per drive allowed | +0.16 #43 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.04 #58 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #41 |
| −0.02 #43 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.43 #6 |
| +0.5% #61 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.4% #73 |
| −1.3% #73 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.0% #49 |
| −0.4% #53 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #47 |
| +0.7% #44 | Havoc created | +0.5% #46 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.121 #16 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.045 #38 |
| −0.151 #132 | Passing explosiveness | +0.089 #32 |
| +0.33 #22 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.16 #27 |
| −0.016 #71 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.133 #127 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #115 | Run rate | 46% #125 |
| −42.3 #131 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.4 #77 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UCF | Season to date | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 32.4 / 17.6 | Points for / against | 38.4 / 13.4 |
| +14.8 | Avg margin | +25.0 |
| +6.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.5 |
| 52.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.8 |
UCF: last 1 games
| W73-6 |
Pittsburgh: last 1 games
| W59-14 |
