Final
Sat, Sep 12, 8:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium · 94° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Grambling–TCU) | 8–50 | – | 7–63 |
| Spread | TCU −41.5 | TCU −44.5 | TCU −56 |
| Total | 58.3 | 56.5 | 70 |
| TCU win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from TCU −43.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Grambling +44.5 Lost★ Over 56.5 Won
Spread: 3.0 pts better than Vegas for Grambling (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around TCU by 41.50%
Grambling by 14+
1%
Grambling by 1–13
4%
TCU by 1–13
95%
TCU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Grambling | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.189 | Offense EPA / play | −0.010 #57 |
| +0.298 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.030 #31 |
| −11.4% | Offense success rate | −0.7% #61 |
| +12.6% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.4% #58 |
| −0.130 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.025 #72 |
| −0.162 | Passing EPA / play | +0.013 #55 |
| +0.251 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.106 #12 |
| +0.266 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.006 #57 |
| −13.0 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #57 |
| +18.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.2 #28 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.1% #85 |
| +7.9% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.7% #80 |
| −2.30 | Points per drive | −0.23 #65 |
| +2.60 | Points per drive allowed | −0.14 #26 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.92 | Line yards per rush | −0.22 #89 |
| +0.94 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.15 #80 |
| +11.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.0% #84 |
| −4.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.4% #78 |
| +5.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #48 |
| −4.6% | Havoc created | −0.3% #67 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.223 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.010 #56 |
| +0.015 | Passing explosiveness | +0.048 #53 |
| +0.38 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.02 #41 |
| +0.097 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.061 #58 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 49% #96 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.2 #41 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Grambling | Season to date | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 7.0 / 63.0 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 13.4 |
| -56.0 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| -11.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.7 |
| 58.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Grambling: last games
No games yet.
TCU: last 1 games
| L10-15 |
