Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium · 82° · wind 19 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oregon–Oklahoma State) | 38–10 | – | 31–39 |
| Spread | Oregon −27.4 | Oregon −24.5 | Oklahoma State −8 |
| Total | 48.3 | 55.5 | 70 |
| Oklahoma State win chance | 4% | – | – |
Line moved from Oregon −18.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Oregon −24.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Lost
Spread: 2.9 pts better than Vegas for Oregon (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon by 27.480%
Oregon by 14+
16%
Oregon by 1–13
4%
Oklahoma State by 1–13
0%
Oklahoma State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oregon | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.149 #10 | Offense EPA / play | −0.145 #124 |
| −0.082 #12 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.112 #95 |
| +6.6% #9 | Offense success rate | −4.2% #110 |
| −4.8% #11 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.0% #75 |
| +0.126 #11 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.140 #124 |
| +0.129 #19 | Passing EPA / play | −0.087 #97 |
| −0.058 #24 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.056 #80 |
| −0.090 #19 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.143 #107 |
| +10.5 #11 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.3 #120 |
| −5.7 #17 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.7 #81 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.4% #16 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.0% #71 |
| −5.2% #12 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.0% #20 |
| +1.29 #17 | Points per drive | −0.83 #108 |
| −0.55 #13 | Points per drive allowed | +0.64 #74 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.22 #14 | Line yards per rush | −0.19 #81 |
| −0.11 #32 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #64 |
| −3.2% #11 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.3% #94 |
| −1.4% #74 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.7% #87 |
| −1.8% #26 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.0% #65 |
| +2.2% #17 | Havoc created | −1.3% #87 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.027 #50 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.139 #127 |
| +0.073 #40 | Passing explosiveness | −0.078 #111 |
| +0.19 #25 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.34 #106 |
| +0.004 #83 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.008 #78 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #80 | Run rate | 49% #105 |
| +5.2 #23 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.3 #66 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oregon | Season to date | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 4-0 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 47.5 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 19.8 |
| +24.2 | Avg margin | +17.5 |
| -3.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 58.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.8 |
Oregon: last 1 games
| W34-27 |
Oklahoma State: last 1 games
| L10-24 |
