Final
Sat, Sep 5, 1:00 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium · 81° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SEMO–Iowa State) | 7–50 | – | 10–38 |
| Spread | Iowa State −43.5 | Iowa State −29.5 | Iowa State −28 |
| Total | 56.6 | 52.5 | 48 |
| Iowa State win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Iowa State −29.5 Lost★ Over 52.5 Lost
Spread: 14.0 pts better than Vegas for Iowa State (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 4.1 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Iowa State by 43.50%
Southeast Missouri State by 14+
0%
Southeast Missouri State by 1–13
3%
Iowa State by 1–13
97%
Iowa State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SEMO | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.285 | Offense EPA / play | −0.009 #64 |
| +0.286 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.015 #43 |
| −13.7% | Offense success rate | −0.3% #56 |
| +11.0% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.3% #56 |
| −0.299 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.009 #60 |
| −0.286 | Passing EPA / play | −0.021 #70 |
| +0.217 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.013 #47 |
| +0.339 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.049 #67 |
| −18.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.0 #66 |
| +19.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.5 #46 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.4% #74 |
| +11.1% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.9% #72 |
| −2.26 | Points per drive | −0.07 #62 |
| +2.87 | Points per drive allowed | +0.40 #54 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.94 | Line yards per rush | −0.12 #65 |
| +0.60 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.07 #57 |
| +9.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.0% #69 |
| −3.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.2% #55 |
| +0.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.7% #93 |
| −7.7% | Havoc created | +0.3% #47 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.048 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.002 #44 |
| −0.018 | Passing explosiveness | +0.010 #65 |
| −0.68 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.10 #71 |
| +0.032 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.027 #69 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 44% | Run rate | 52% #61 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SEMO | Season to date | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 10.0 / 38.0 | Points for / against | 33.6 / 21.2 |
| -28.0 | Avg margin | +12.4 |
| +1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.7 |
| 67.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
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