Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:45 PM ET
Chapman Stadium · 101° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oklahoma State–Tulsa) | 26–28 | – | 10–24 |
| Spread | Tulsa −2.9 | Oklahoma State −13.5 | Tulsa −14 |
| Total | 54.1 | 57.5 | 34 |
| Tulsa win chance | 57% | – | – |
Line moved from Oklahoma State −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Tulsa +13.5 Won★ Under 57.5 Won
Spread: 16.4 pts better than Vegas for Tulsa (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tulsa by 2.915%
Oklahoma State by 14+
28%
Oklahoma State by 1–13
33%
Tulsa by 1–13
24%
Tulsa by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oklahoma State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.064 #95 | Offense EPA / play | −0.107 #119 |
| +0.096 #95 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.088 #89 |
| −3.3% #99 | Offense success rate | −3.9% #106 |
| +2.9% #81 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.0% #92 |
| −0.062 #93 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.097 #116 |
| −0.058 #87 | Passing EPA / play | −0.121 #121 |
| +0.057 #76 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.040 #64 |
| +0.088 #88 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.088 #89 |
| −4.7 #95 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.6 #102 |
| +4.9 #87 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.1 #111 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.1% #94 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.5% #100 |
| +2.6% #80 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.5% #100 |
| −0.37 #83 | Points per drive | −0.78 #118 |
| +0.98 #92 | Points per drive allowed | +0.91 #84 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.22 #88 | Line yards per rush | −0.24 #92 |
| +0.12 #73 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.15 #79 |
| +1.7% #85 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.5% #124 |
| −0.3% #57 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #68 |
| +1.8% #111 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.6% #109 |
| −0.1% #61 | Havoc created | −2.5% #117 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.000 #40 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.013 #83 |
| −0.000 #85 | Passing explosiveness | −0.028 #118 |
| −0.13 #78 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.20 #99 |
| −0.017 #86 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.037 #51 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #93 | Run rate | 53% #48 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oklahoma State | Season to date | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 37.2 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 21.2 |
| +17.5 | Avg margin | +6.6 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.5 |
| 70.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
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