Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Jones AT&T Stadium · 94° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ACU–Texas Tech) | 5–51 | – | 10–33 |
| Spread | Texas Tech −45.4 | Texas Tech −45.5 | Texas Tech −23 |
| Total | 56.3 | 61.5 | 43 |
| Texas Tech win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas Tech −42.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ ACU +45.5 Won★ Under 61.5 Won
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Abilene Christian (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.2 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas Tech by 45.40%
Abilene Christian by 14+
0%
Abilene Christian by 1–13
2%
Texas Tech by 1–13
97%
Texas Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| ACU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.100 | Offense EPA / play | +0.082 #16 |
| +0.181 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.175 #1 |
| −3.2% | Offense success rate | +2.8% #32 |
| +7.3% | Defense success rate allowed | −6.9% #4 |
| −0.018 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.089 #26 |
| −0.178 | Passing EPA / play | +0.079 #16 |
| +0.167 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.164 #2 |
| +0.210 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.128 #9 |
| −7.4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +7.5 #12 |
| +11.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −8.2 #10 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.0% #23 |
| +6.8% | Passing-down success allowed | −4.1% #9 |
| −1.30 | Points per drive | +0.95 #14 |
| +1.55 | Points per drive allowed | −0.82 #12 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.01 | Line yards per rush | +0.22 #30 |
| +0.24 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.53 #1 |
| −0.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.4% #22 |
| −0.9% | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.0% #10 |
| −3.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #35 |
| −11.4% | Havoc created | +3.9% #1 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.002 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.039 #12 |
| −0.079 | Passing explosiveness | +0.084 #93 |
| −0.09 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.06 #27 |
| −0.018 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.035 #14 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 52% #117 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| ACU | Season to date | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 10.0 / 33.0 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 16.2 |
| -23.0 | Avg margin | +18.6 |
| +22.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.7 |
| 58.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.0 |
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