Final
Sat, Aug 29, 12:00 PM ET
Aviva Stadium · 63° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (North Carolina–TCU) | 22–31 | – | 15–10 |
| Spread | TCU −9.2 | TCU −7.5 | North Carolina −5 |
| Total | 52.4 | 46.5 | 25 |
| TCU win chance | 72% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ TCU −7.5 Lost★ Over 46.5 Lost
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for TCU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.9 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around TCU by 9.27%
North Carolina by 14+
21%
North Carolina by 1–13
34%
TCU by 1–13
38%
TCU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| North Carolina | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.014 #67 | Offense EPA / play | +0.070 #22 |
| +0.053 #71 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.012 #36 |
| −1.3% #70 | Offense success rate | +2.3% #30 |
| +1.4% #58 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.8% #31 |
| −0.031 #72 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.016 #43 |
| +0.018 #46 | Passing EPA / play | +0.111 #14 |
| +0.064 #83 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.022 #28 |
| +0.004 #46 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.011 #35 |
| −3.4 #87 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.7 #19 |
| +0.7 #52 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.8 #36 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.6% #62 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.1% #25 |
| +0.2% #43 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.1% #40 |
| −0.09 #68 | Points per drive | +0.46 #31 |
| +0.65 #72 | Points per drive allowed | +0.16 #37 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.13 #71 | Line yards per rush | −0.09 #57 |
| +0.09 #67 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.02 #41 |
| +0.1% #45 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.3% #77 |
| −2.4% #110 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.7% #65 |
| +1.4% #108 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #51 |
| −0.1% #60 | Havoc created | +0.2% #50 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.020 #99 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.007 #67 |
| +0.007 #68 | Passing explosiveness | +0.043 #25 |
| −0.14 #82 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.02 #37 |
| −0.090 #5 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.021 #74 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #64 | Run rate | 48% #114 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| North Carolina | Season to date | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 24.0 / 19.5 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 13.4 |
| +4.5 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| +3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.7 |
| 54.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
North Carolina: last games
No games yet.
TCU: last games
No games yet.