Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA) · 89° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (MSST–LSU) | 22–35 | – |
| Spread | LSU −13.0 | No line |
| Total | 58.0 | n/a |
| LSU win chance | 79% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around LSU by 13.05%
Mississippi State by 14+
16%
Mississippi State by 1–13
31%
LSU by 1–13
48%
LSU by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| MSST | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.158 #13 | Offense EPA / play | +0.091 #25 |
| −0.012 #45 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.178 #4 |
| +7.3% #9 | Offense success rate | +4.8% #16 |
| −0.3% #44 | Defense success rate allowed | −10.2% #1 |
| +0.154 #9 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.036 #46 |
| +0.182 #19 | Passing EPA / play | +0.130 #28 |
| −0.039 #34 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.135 #15 |
| −0.035 #39 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.274 #2 |
| +10.5 #10 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +11.1 #8 |
| −0.4 #51 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −7.7 #10 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.9% #11 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.8% #18 |
| −1.9% #36 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.8% #18 |
| +1.34 #13 | Points per drive | +1.76 #9 |
| +0.15 #43 | Points per drive allowed | −0.50 #13 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.34 #9 | Line yards per rush | +0.13 #28 |
| +0.07 #64 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.84 #2 |
| −2.0% #30 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #26 |
| −2.2% #89 | Opponent runs stuffed | +8.4% #3 |
| −1.8% #32 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.2% #70 |
| +1.5% #32 | Havoc created | +5.0% #5 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.017 #75 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.047 #90 |
| +0.061 #42 | Passing explosiveness | +0.058 #44 |
| +0.37 #18 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.04 #57 |
| −0.033 #68 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.150 #126 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #66 | Run rate | 52% #71 |
| +4.1 #7 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.9 #28 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| MSST | Season to date | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 39.0 / 28.0 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 15.2 |
| +11.0 | Avg margin | +28.4 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 61.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.8 |
Mississippi State: last 5 games
| L23-56 | |
| W31-24 | |
| W41-34 | |
| W38-13 | |
| W62-13 |
LSU: last 5 games
| W63-14 | |
| W35-6 | |
| L24-32 | |
| W45-14 | |
| W51-10 |
